A probabilistic numerical environment was developed in order to simulate thousands of years of
operations at the site. This included:
• Simulation of metocean, sea ice intrusions and ice drift dynamics
• Simulation of metocean forecasiting
• Simulation of the effect of ice risk management (incl. ice drift forecasts and physical ice management)
• Simulations of response forecast of the moored FPU
• Simulations of downtime due to forecasted ice threats
The downtime due to sea ice was simulated for various operational configurations and parameters steering the downtime level were identified.